The week in review

Last Week; wasn’t a good one for the economic bulls, and particularly those that think the housing markets are making a turn. Jan existing home sales were expected to have increased about 1.0%, they tanked to a decline of 7.7% with the inventory of unsold homes increasing to 7.8 month from 7.2 months in Dec. New home sales in Jan really fell, with the forecast of an increase of 3.7% over a weak month in Dec, sales plunged 11.2%. Bernanke testified in Congress last week, it went OK and markets only took out of it that once again Bernanke reiterated interest rates would stay low for a lot longer. We are hearing that it will likely be four more meetings before the FF rate is increased, that takes to out to the latter part of this year. It all depends on the economy; we still think the foundations of the present optimism are too optimistic are too excessive, but that is that famous wall of worry it takes. Not only housing data; consumer confidence in Feb declined substantially; the Conference Board’s index of confidence dropped over 10 points (20%) from Jan to Feb to a low read of 46.0; the U. of Michigan consumer index didn’t slide at all and remained unchanged on the month——more to be confused about. Although the week was punctuated with very soft economic data, the equity markets held well with very little change in the key indexes. The interest rate markets improved; the 10 yr note yield fell 16 basis points to 3.62% and 30 yr mortgage rates declined about 8 to 10 basis points.